媒体报道:艾哈迈德亲王返回沙特,盛传沙特王室将发生政变废黜王储,可能吗?

         近日外媒接连报道,沙特国王萨勒曼的弟弟、出走英国的艾哈迈德·本·阿卜杜勒阿齐兹亲王已返回利雅得,酝酿一场政变罢黜其侄子、王储本·萨勒曼。据媒体报道,这位70多岁的亲王是在美英安全部门支持下返回沙特,后者向其提供安全保障,并鼓励他扮演篡位者的角色。

外界盛传,艾哈迈德亲王将向王储本·萨勒曼发起王位挑战,或寻找一个可以挑战他的人

 囿于对沙特王室之政治生态的了解,不知道这种可能性有多大?

 不管怎样,艾哈迈德亲王在目前沙特王储深陷“卡舒吉谋杀案”的高度敏感时刻冒险返回沙特,其动机本身就值得深究。所谓“无风不起浪”。有可能就此拉开沙特王室宫廷内斗序幕!

          首先,艾哈迈德亲王的身份地位显赫。他是现任国王萨勒曼的亲弟弟,苏德里7兄弟的最小的一位。他曾担任沙特内政部长,也曾被认为是接替国王萨尔曼的潜在候选人,但在后来几次人事变动中被排除在外。他在去年11月反腐行动前离开沙特,但外界视其为沙特王储最大的执政“障碍”。

           其次,艾哈迈德亲王是王储本·萨勒曼的公开异见者。他公开反对沙特王储,多次批评王储的政策和做法。作为辅助王位权力转移的效忠委员会成员之一,曾反对立本·萨勒曼为王储,在本·萨勒曼立为王储后也没有向其宣誓效忠。最近,他在出席一个活动时,对也门和巴林的抗议者说:“沙特家族不承担也门战争的责任,只有国王和王储才要为也门的罪行负责。”

           再次,艾哈迈德亲王是沙特自由派的王室领袖人物。沙特王室内部就国家发展和规划是存在分歧的,现任国王萨勒曼和王储本·萨勒曼属于沙特的民族主义保守派。王室内部出现改革声,艾哈迈德的支持者、沙特反对派王子哈立德.法尔罕呼吁在沙特推行君主立宪制,将沙特国王变成沙特的国家元首和一种象征。他甚至提出萨勒曼应该放弃王位,让艾哈迈德继位,以捍卫沙特王室的尊严,给沙特政治带来新气象。这似乎符合西方口味。

           第四,王储本·萨勒曼深陷“卡舒吉谋杀案”、四面楚歌。西方社会对沙特的声讨愈演愈烈,要求对卡舒吉谋杀进行彻底调查,沙特王储面临其政治生涯的最大危机,罢黜王储的讨论不绝于耳。英国媒体报道,艾哈迈德亲王和王室的其他成员已经意识到,王储“已经变得有毒”(has become toxic),在西方国家眼中是永久的污点,有害整个家族的声誉,希望做出改变。包括3名地位较高的王子或亲王在内的一些王室成员鼓励他取得侄子的王位。

           第五,沙特社会内部矛盾重重、危机四伏。表面看,沙特社会处于一种非常原始的状态,但民众对于国家的认同感并不高,对王室专制统治也不满,希望改革的呼声此起彼伏。如果艾哈迈德亲王真能振臂高呼,对国家进行现代化改造,推行君主立宪制,民众参与政治的热情将可能如火山喷发,沙特的政治格局将发生天翻地覆变化。沙特自由派认为,艾哈迈德亲王的人气和能力其实并不输于萨勒曼国王,通过正当的投票选举完全可以出任国王。

           除此外,似乎还有西方在背后支持

           当然,其中也存在很大风险。一是,目前沙特国内的自由派王室成员基本都已经被清洗,他们被剥夺了大部分财产,即便是释放,活动也受到监视和控制,而且不允许离开沙特。凝结王室反对派力量似乎很玄乎。搞不好,所谓的“废黜王储“的政变会流产。

           二是沙特国王萨勒曼和王储本·萨勒曼掌握着政权,特别是王储本人身兼国防部长,手握军权,一定会对任何反叛行动予以严厉镇压。王储行动之果敢、手段之残忍,“卡舒吉谋杀案“向我们演绎了血腥的剧情。所以,”废黜王储“的政变有可能演变成一场血流成河的屠杀事件。

           三是沙特是一种政教合一的王室专制政体,除非王室内部自生一场政治改革运动,或者强大的外部力量介入,否则很难打破。甚至有一种可能,沙特现行政体被颠覆了,社会却乱了套。王室权威旁落后,现代文明政体又一下子不能确立,沙特可能陷入军阀割据、极端组织横行的四分五裂状态。这在中东有例可循。

            四是西方国家、尤其是美国是否真敢介入这场所谓“废黜王储“的政变,或者介入的程度有多深,力度有多大,值得怀疑。尽管沙特在政治上依附于西方国家,王位的传承不可避免要受到列强影响。但西方特别是美国在沙特拥有巨大的利益,谁当国王或者王储,西方可能并不是多在意,关键是沙特必须维持稳定和统一。

            眼下对于全球市场而言,王储被废引发的沙特内乱和中东地缘政治动荡,可能导致油价一飞冲天,全球市场风险显著升温。这并不是欧洲和美国目前所需要的。

             最后,还有一点值得注意,据说艾哈迈德亲王太软弱,他是否有能力改变沙特王国值得怀疑。关键的问题是,他能否像费萨尔国王那样,在1964年的唯一一次家族政变中推翻他的兄弟萨乌德。然而,如果一切都失败了,艾哈迈德亲王可能会发现自己符合另一个历史性的相似之处:艾哈迈德·沙菲克试图在今年3月的选举中推翻埃及总统阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·塞西。流亡在外的沙菲克被认为是塞西危险的对手,被鼓励返回埃及,但回国后遭遇军队最高委员会将军的否认,并被迫放弃挑战总统的计划。

 

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