蓬佩奥跟特朗普是一路人吗?他会弃老特而去吗?

         这是个很纠结的问题:说蓬佩奥跟特朗普不是一路人吧,两人关系又那么好,立场那么一致,特朗普对其亲睐有加;说是一路人吧,蓬佩奥属于典型建制派精英,坚守着美国的政治规则,修正着特朗普及其白宫团队的任意妄为,最近又传出他欲离开特朗普而去。

         根据华叔的观察,蓬佩奥跟特朗普二人之间有高度的同一性,又有着明显的差异性。蓬佩奥属于和彭斯同类型人物。

         首先,不得不说,特朗普对于蓬佩奥有知遇之恩。2017年1月,特朗普提名其出任美国中央情报局局长,一年后的2018年4月又提名出任美国第70任国务卿,一跃而成为美行政3号人物,在美国政界炙手可热。没有特朗普的亲睐,蓬佩奥不会一步登天。

   有消息说,蓬佩奥是特朗普多年的老朋友,不知道是否准确。仅就华叔搜寻的资料显示,两人的渊源只能追溯到2016年特朗普参与总统竞选之初。当时,老特在共和党内并不被看好,党内最早公开发声支持特朗普的人,是共和党内右翼“茶党”领袖、阿拉斯加州前州长佩林。后来“茶党”成为老特当选总统的重要支持力量,而蓬佩奥正是“茶党”的代表人物之一。

         这“茶党”,与其说是一个政党派别,不如说是一种右翼民粹思潮,曾在经济提振乏力的奥巴马任内达到高峰,后来成为特朗普的主要票仓。以蓬佩奥担任国务卿为节点,美国右翼先锋“茶党”可以说达到历史上政治权力的高峰。在特朗普内阁中占据重要地位的官员中,至少有三位有“茶党”背景,其中包括美国副总统彭斯、美国驻联合国大使妮基·黑莉,以及白宫预算总监米克·马尔瓦尼。

         不管怎样,相对于前一任国务卿蒂勒森来说,特朗普与蓬佩奥的关系更加密切。在很多重大国际问题上,在内外政策方面,当蒂勒森和特朗普唱反调的时候,蓬佩奥却总是站在老特一边,以至于美国媒体将蓬佩奥形容成鲜明的“反蒂勒森风格”。

在移民、宗教、国家安全和振兴美国经济上的许多问题上,蓬佩奥与特朗普有着相同的理念,甚至比特朗普还要强硬、极端。他在当国会议员时,就经常强调美国可以单边行动,他也因此被归于极端保守派。其极端言论,经常受到美国主流媒体的强烈抨击。

         华叔认为,特朗普欣赏蓬佩奥的一个重要原因,是后者总能与其步调一致。用老特的话说,“我和蓬佩奥之间有很好的化学反应,总是在一个波长上,这也是我从国务卿身上所需要的”。前美国中情局局长莱昂·帕内塔这样评价道:蓬佩奥的优势之一是和特朗普的个人关系。“蓬佩奥有一种能力,让特朗普愿意坐下倾听。这很不容易。”

         蓬佩奥在掌控CIA时,颠覆了CIA的中立传统,即不受党派和政治立场左右。他总是借着向特朗普回报工作,跟在老特左右,俨然成了白宫工作人员。尽管他不时受到舆论的嘲讽,但圈内一直认为他这个人确实非常能干,他执掌中情局一年多来,获得了局内同仁的高度赞赏。比较一致的看法是,这个人做事非常勤勉,任人惟贤、任人惟能,在重大问题上擅于听取专业意见,既充分尊重专业,又敢于拍板负责。因此,尽管其极端言论经常遭遇美媒的强烈抨击,但在中情局内部都认为他是一个好老板,国会和白宫也都认为他非常能干、称职。

         自从蓬佩奥投身政坛以来,所有的公开言论都跟特朗普的政治主张极为相近。美国政论作家迈克·沃什认为,蓬佩奥和特朗普在三个重要问题上观点一致:第一,他们都认为美国目前全球最大的竞争者是中国,而不是俄罗斯;第二,他们都主张以强硬态度对待伊朗问题,重新讨论甚至取消伊朗核协议;第三,都主张直面朝鲜领导人金正恩。

         正因为如此,特朗普在不待见前国务卿蒂勒森时,看中他而揽入内阁。老特对蓬佩奥听证会专门推特祝福和期待:“祝君听证会好运,他将会是一个伟大的国务卿!”老特在出席共和党筹款活动晚宴时称赞蓬佩奥“将会出色地完成工作”。

          的确与蒂勒森不同,蓬佩奥更加支持老特的决策。在很多抉择中,尽管他可能会跟老特有不同意见,但他最终还是会在各种公开场合支持老特的决定,而且老特留下的一些烂摊子也无怨无悔地去收拾。蓬佩奥最近刚刚完成了为期8天的中东之行,就是为了平息国际社会对老特外交政策的担忧。

蓬佩奥还不遗余力地维护特朗普的声誉。在很多人对特朗普推特上的争议言论颇有微词时,蓬佩奥也是少数几个公开表示支持立场的人。在被问到特朗普的推特言论是否给中情局工作带来麻烦时,蓬佩奥这样回答,“我觉得这对于我们很有帮助。事实上,特朗普总统发的推特,有助于提高中情局工作人员理解世界的能力。”2018年初,美国记者沃尔夫出版了一本名为《怒与火》的书,揭露了不少白宫和特朗普本人的内幕。在沃尔夫的书中,特朗普被描述成一个“不会处理或阅读下属汇报给他信息的人”。蓬佩奥则在接受采访时回应称,这样的说法“纯属无稽之谈”。他随后不忘赞扬特朗普对报告的理解能力。

         蓬佩奥上任以来,的确不负特朗普重望,帮助老特解决了一个又一个棘手问题,干了好几件大事情,名声陡增。其中一件是在任职中情局局长期间,积极斡旋美朝关系。2018年3月底至4月初,适逢朝鲜试射导弹失败、以及美国“卡尔·文森”号航母打击群驶入半岛附近水域的高度敏感时刻,以美国总统特使身份秘密访问朝鲜,为美朝首脑会面铺路,成就了举世瞩目的特金会。另一件是积极斡旋卡舒吉遇害事件,促成美国对土耳其诸多方面让步,就此事件美土沙三边达成默契,化解了一场剑拔弩张的中东地缘政治局势,让一场全球口诛笔伐的外交危机消弭于无形。此两件大事,蓬佩奥功不可没,对特朗普是最大的回报。

        美媒评价:特朗普找到了步调一致的国务卿。“蓬佩奥无论在表达还是思想上,都比蒂勒森更接近特朗普总统”。所以,如走马灯一般换将的老特,却对蓬佩奥青睐有加。如果要票选2017-2018年特朗普政府中最幸运的官员,蓬佩奥一定榜上有名。

         从这些方面看,华叔以为蓬佩奥和特朗普是一路人。

         但是最近蓬佩奥要“离任”的消息被美国舆论炒的沸沸扬扬,开始颠覆华叔的认知。CNN、《国会山报》等多家美媒报道,蓬佩奥近来正严肃考虑2020年竞选堪萨斯州参议员一事,为此还与共和党深战略家沃德·贝克沃德贝克(Ward Baker)会面。美媒还煞有介事地考证,蓬佩奥2011年至2017年担任过三届堪萨斯州的众议员,而现任堪萨斯州共和党联邦参议员的帕特罗伯茨(Pat Roberts)表示不会在2020年寻求连任,参议院多数党领袖麦康奈尔带头鼓动蓬佩奥争取这一席位,蓬佩奥也很可能看上这一位置。

         华叔反复考量,感觉蓬佩奥跟特朗普最大的不同,是他作为一名资深建制派人物。他的成长经历与副总统彭斯更为接近,是在传统精英圈子混出来的,而不是像特朗普那样从一个政治草根突然拥有最高权力的政治素人。这位毕业于西点军校和哈佛法学院两个顶级学府的政治精英,担任CIA局长前是众议院情报委员会及能源和商务委员会成员。他当过兵,做过律师,还做过生意,且从政前阅历丰富,2010年当选堪萨斯州联邦众议员,直至2017年1月23日就任中央情报局局长。他无愧是一名具有军事、情报和商业诸方面经验的国务卿。其丰富的从政资历,使其谙熟美国政治。他在准备接任美国国务卿前,竟然不计党派之争之嫌,专门请教老特的对手、与自己结过梁子的前国务卿希拉里以及克里。可见其身段之柔软。

          蓬佩奥完整的学习、当兵、律师、经商经理造就了他的从政基础。

         与特朗普身边那帮老气横秋的团队不同,这位出生于1963年12月的蓬佩奥,刚过55周岁,属于典型的中壮年类型,目标明确,精力充沛,充满活力,身段柔和。

          蓬佩奥出生于加利福尼亚州的橘子郡,父亲是意大利人。蓬佩奥中学期间就很优秀,喜欢运动,酷爱篮球,喜欢阅读,曾是俄裔美国作家安·兰德的忠实读者。蓬佩奥表示自己受安·兰德科幻小说《地球颤栗》影响很大,书中的主人公努力挣扎对抗虚无主义。从那时候起,年少的蓬佩奥就开始思考严肃的人生问题。

         高中结束后,蓬佩奥考上了西点军校,主修机械工程,1986年毕业时,成绩排名全班第一。毕业后,蓬佩奥顺理成章地进入部队,逐步升职到上尉。服役期间,经历了柏林墙的倒塌和海湾战争。他接受采访时提到自己服役时的经历,表示在军队里学到的一件事是“重要的事情先讲”。而这个行事准则,也成了伴随他一生的习惯。在工作中,他始终是单刀直入,主次分明。

         1991年,蓬佩奥离开部队,进入哈佛大学法学院念书。在学校期间,他是《哈佛法律评论》杂志的编辑,担任过法学院教授格伦登的研究助理,后者曾是美国驻梵蒂冈大使。蓬佩奥曾不止一次向格伦登表示希望进入政坛的想法,而格伦登也很欣赏他的才华和潜力。1994年他顺利从哈佛大学毕业,进入华盛顿一家知名律所工作,不久后离开律所,和几个西点军校的校友合伙,在堪萨斯州的威奇托开了一家航天科技公司。他的经商才能很快显现出来,他的公司获得了美国商业巨头科赫家族的投资,而这个家族是美国著名保守派政治活动家,是美国共和党的一大金主。这影响了他的从政经历。2006年,蓬佩奥出任石油设备公司Sentry International总裁,就此开始涉足与政治相关的事务,担任保守派公共政策研究所Flint Hills的理事,这家机构后来改名为堪萨斯政策研究中心。

          蓬佩奥的政治生涯,在堪萨斯正式起步。2010年,堪萨斯共和党第四区国会议席开始选举时,蓬佩奥决定参选国会议员。他在接受《华盛顿邮报》采访时道出自己的参选原因,称与自己的从商经历有关。“我在堪萨斯经营着两个小公司,我深切地感受到政府的有些做法对企业经营者的打击。这也是我为什么要参选国会议员,我要改变现状。我相信堪萨斯的很多选民是支持我这么做的。”——这一点似乎跟特朗普竞选总统的原因一致。凭借经商时与科赫家族建立的友谊,他的参选获得了科赫家族经济上的支持。2011年,蓬佩奥当选堪萨斯州众议员,此后一直获得连任。而科赫家族对蓬佩奥的经济支持一直持续至今。

         哈佛大学法学院的格伦登教授说:“蓬佩奥是一个务实的人,他和妻子在确保能给家庭一个坚实的经济基础后,才决定全身心投入到政坛。”

          在众议院,蓬佩奥逐渐树立了在国家安全问题上的坚定保守派形象。对奥巴马政府内政和外交政策的攻击不遗余力,展现了强硬的鹰派作风。2012年,和时任美国国务卿希拉里的对峙让蓬佩奥“一战成名”。。

2012年,美国会众议院成立调查组,调查美国驻叙利亚班加西领事馆遭袭,国务院与国务卿希拉里在这个问题上是否失职。作为小组核心成员的蓬佩奥,始终认为小组对希拉里的态度不够强硬。当希拉里在国会作证时,蓬佩奥的提问毫不留情,十分犀利,让希拉里难以招架。这让蓬佩奥一时间成为媒体的焦点。此后,蓬佩奥和希拉里似乎就“结下了梁子”。2016年总统大选的初选期间,蓬佩奥的发言人就对外表示,“蓬佩奥会坚定支持共和党提名的总统候选人,他认为希拉里无论如何也不能当美国总统。”

         就任美国国务卿后,蓬佩奥非常谦卑。据说他很是平易近人,频繁地与员工有简短的“咖啡会谈”,倾听、善用差异、释放才能,和团队合作,努力重塑国务院,以图改变之前低落士气。走出国务院,他满世界奔跑,斡旋于复杂多变的外交场合。虽然他属于鹰派人物,但从他的言行看,比较理智,把握适度,并没有像特朗普那样不管不顾,过度激进。

         就中美关系而言,他任中情局长时对中国多持批评立场,曾在多个场合说,中国才是美国的真正威胁。但在出席参议院的国务卿提名听证会时,却突然变身为“鸽派”,非但没有强调中国为“主要战略竞争对手”,反倒突出特朗普政府要与中国建立更具成效的双边伙伴关系,不想让美中关系成为“零和替代”。在外交上,蓬佩奧对华似乎存在矛盾的心态。一方面,他对中国的战略竞争依然戒心重重,认为美国必须在军事、经济等各个站线准备好应对来自中国的“挑战”。美国可以寻求与中方合作,但在发生对抗的地方,要确保美国和民主的愿景仍可为世界提供力量源泉。另一方面,他又不认为应当与中国搞零和对抗。在回应参议员提问“如何处理对华经济关系与安全关系的平衡”时,表示好的外交就是不要导致冲突和“零和替代”,不要为了安全关系而牺牲经济关系。他还表示,会仔细思考与中国存在问题的风险,确认要处理的相对优先。他认为,他相信,与其它贸易伙伴结盟,并通过外交努力,争取中国全面遵守经贸规则,是处理贸易问题的最好方式。

         作为建制派人物,与特朗普身边团队认为美国对华政策中心在白宫不同,蓬佩奥强调美国国务院必须是制定和实施对华政策的中心。或许是想争取更大的外交话语权,平衡白宫过分激进的外交政策。也有分析认为,他是试图让外交博弈而不是军事对抗成为美中竞合的主战场,在一定程度上缓解人们对极端保守主义者博尔顿领衔白宫国安会引发的美中关系忧虑。

         作为混迹于美国传统政治圈子的人物,蓬佩奥谙熟华盛顿“纸牌屋”那些套路,对自己的政治前途应该有长远考量和算计。

一方面,虽然蓬佩奥与特朗普都属于保守派阵营,且老特对他有知遇之恩。但是,2020老特肯定要竞选连任,他的国务卿就算到顶了,想要百尺竿头更进一步:将来再去争夺总统大位,靠特朗普是不行的。蓬佩奥很清楚,在老特心中,他属于共和党内的建制派,与之不完全是一路人,老特不会重点提携他。特朗普两任之后,推举的共和党总统候选人一定是跟他的观念比较接近的一位政治人物,这样才有可能在其任期结束之后,保护其家族的利益。再者,他也不是老特那种独立特行类型,很难获得那些反建制、反精英的特朗普圈粉支持,也很难想象他将来能够接盘老特的政治遗产。

         另一方面,长期跟着特朗普混,共和党内大佬会认为他与老特关系密切,从而会对他失去信任,同时也会失去美国传统民众的支持。有着很强政治抱负的蓬佩奥,显然不愿意再这样尴尬的留在老特身边,还不如听从共和党大佬的意见,返回政治生涯的起点深耕基层。美媒报道说,蓬佩奥之所以要离开华盛顿,回大本营继续拼选战,并不是参议员的职位有什么强烈的吸引力,而是他深感在特朗普手下没有太大的前途,还不如靠自己打拼来得自在。

          除此外在特朗普手下干,好处少、麻烦多,出错的机会太多。要想在国务卿的位置上顺利的干下去,就必须忠实的执行老特的政策。但是老特的政策过于激进,很多情况需要他这个国务卿站出来挡枪,犯错的机会非常高。特朗普身边要员一个接着一个被解聘或离职,不久前国防部长马蒂斯因与老特在叙利亚撤军决定上存在巨大分歧而选择辞职,紧接着白宫幕僚长凯利也递上了辞呈。谁知道,他蓬佩奥会不会成为下一个蒂勒森?

           所以,尽早离开特朗普应该是蓬佩奥最好的选择。何况,有一个合适的位子等找他去拿。

 

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